After two times suffering serious illness, what is left for Vietnam’s communist chief?

The first time he fell ill was on April 14, 2019, when Nguyen Phu Trong was working in Kien Giang. He had nearly passed away at that time. Perhaps, because of the medical timely intervention, he was able to regain his life from the hands of death. However, his health was almost beyond recovery. When he fell ill in Kien Giang, Trong was 75 years old, the age when he should have enjoyed the countryside, but he tried to hold on to his position of the communist chief, even though his health did not allow it.

At the 13thNational Congress of the Communist Party, it was thought that he would retire because at that time, he did not meet all three conditions to stay in the position of General Secretary. One is that he is too old, two is that he is too old for his term, and three is that he is not in good health. Yet, he remained regardless and remained in the position of General Secretary, continuing his third term.

On January 12, a major American newspaper reported that Nguyen Phu Trong – General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam – was hospitalized. This newspaper, citing sources from many officials who knew about this incident, said that Trong was hospitalized after falling seriously ill. The Party Central Committee had to cancel its meeting last week.

Trong was hospitalized earlier this week for an unspecified illness, according to two officials who spoke on condition of anonymity. Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately respond to this newspaper’s request to comment on Trong’s health.

So, a major international newspaper has published the news that Trong has a real illness, not a rumor, but whether he is alive or dead, as of January 12, it is still a mystery.

If Trong dies, there is no need to discuss anything, but if he is not dead, then whether, after falling ill, at the age of “eighteen” will he still be strong enough to take on the role of leader of the Communist Party of Vietnam anymore?

In 2020, Nguyen Xuan Phuc, then Prime Minister, signed and issued Decision 1295 of the Government, on the list of state secrets in the field of health. Accordingly, issues related to the health of members of the Politburo and the Party Central Committee Secretariat, such as medical records, information, results of medical examination, treatment, health check, etc. belongs to the “top secret” category.

Before this decision, the Party had always considered the leader’s health situation a “national secret.” However, when Trong fell ill in Kien Giang, that secret still could not be kept. The news still leaked out and the state media ran behind the liberal media on this issue. Perhaps the legalization of “leaders’ health is a national secret” is intended to limit information from leaking out?

Securing the health of leaders through laws means that there will be a possibility that senior officials who are not healthy enough can still sit in seats of power. Entrusting major national issues to officials who are not healthy enough to hold power for a long time is a huge risk for the country.

This second time he fell ill, if he did not die, one thing is certain: Trong’s health would deteriorate even further. If he did not die, there is almost a 100% chance that he would still continue to sit as General Secretary. If he dies, it can be said that fierce power battles will arise within the Communist Party of Vietnam. It could even be a fight to the death.

In China, the successor to the General Secretary and President is often ranked as Vice President. However, Vietnam’s political chessboard does not have such rules, but is often determined at the last minute, depending on the results of factional fighting within the party.

Whoever succeeds Trong as General Secretary will inherit the power ecosystem he left behind. Compared to his predecessor, Trong has built a very strong power ecosystem around him, through the anti-corruption campaign. The more powerful the position, the more attractive it is, so if Mr. Trong dies, Vietnamese politics will have many “good movies” worth watching.