Living under the communist regime, deprived of all civil and political rights, Vietnamese people have developed the habit of being indifferent to political developments. Vietnamese people often keep their mouth closed when ones officials get promoted while others went down as these developments did not affect their lives.
Most people follow politics just out of curiosity, watching internal fighting and applaud when some officials fail just because they hate them. That’s all!
But, at a time when the performance of the internal struggling is pushed to its climax, it can lead to unexpected changes.
When the ruling Communist Party continuously kicked out a series of leaders, both politicians considered technocratic, and men and women trained with Maxism and Leninism, causing people to widen their eyes and the international community to be startled, many people began to started thinking about escaping.
The fastest people are probably foreign financial investors. Corresponding to each wave of shaking at the political top, there is a strong shake in the financial market, caused by the flight of foreign investors. Radio Free Asia reported on May 17 that about $2 billion has been withdrawn from Vietnam’s financial market in the past few months, corresponding to the fall of Vo Van Thuong, Vuong Dinh Hue, and most recently, Truong Thi Mai.
This shows that foreign investors do not believe in the Communist Party of Vietnam. Because the Party still reassures them that it’s okay, that the change in leadership does not affect economic and diplomatic policies, etc. but foreign investors are not stupid. They come to this country to do business, to make money, not to learn the Party’s resolutions!
Anyone who has some understanding of state governance knows that the personal role of the leader cannot be ignored in the results of an economy’s operation. Like America, whether Democratic or Republican, each party’s stance and guidelines are always steadfast, but clearly, each president leaves his or her own mark.
Moreover, the Western world develops on the basis of democracy, they do not like those guys full of Marx-Le theory, they are even more fed up with those guys who come up from the armed forces, whose thinking is only encapsulated in giving orders to subordinates and listening to superiors’ orders. Because most of these people do not understand anything about the market economy, are ignorant about international law, and are extremely ignorant about governance even though their mouths still say these things.
Yet, how boring! The leadership fighting resulted in 7/16 members of the Politburo coming from the army and police; There are 8/16 members of the Secretariat, meaning people belonging to the Party organization; The rest also rose from the path of the Party – Youth Union or political theory. It can be said that there are no technocrats left, including Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh.
This can bring bad consequences to the Vietnamese economy, not only in the short term in terms of capital withdrawal from the stock market. But then there will be long-term impacts on the FDI sector.
When a foreign company invests in a manufacturing plant, it is not as quick as financial investment, nor as quick as billionaire Pham Nhat Vuong with VIN Group, but often has to go through a process of careful research and analysis for many years, before deciding to invest in a factory.
However, when there are political upheavals, when the administration system that the Vietnamese call “terror citizens” becomes paralyzed, when today an investor signs with this guy, tomorrow they have to work with other guys making them feel bored and insecure, they will also withdraw their capital and leave.
Therefore, worse things lie ahead!
Over the past 2 years, as the party’s internal fighting has become more and more fierce, the economy has also followed suit, slipping further and further. And when FDI capital is withdrawn, when exported goods are tightened, all the misery will continue to fall on the people!
Currently, the Party leadership is quite confident that the US and the West need Vietnam to act as a counterweight to China. Perhaps, they think, the West will always pamper them, no matter what they are. Therefore, even though they do not meet any of the 6 requirements of a market economy according to US law, they still insist that the US recognize them, like a spoiled child who continuously makes mistakes but still keeps demanding gifts.
Perhaps, the Party also does not care about American law, as they have repeatedly trampled on international conventions, multilateral and bilateral agreements, right after they signed them, before the ink was dry.
However, everything has its limits. The West will not be able to trample on their core values just to meet Vietnam’s demand.
Chúc Anh – thoibao.de
